[R-G] Australian oil production declining fast

Tim Murphy info at cinox.demon.co.uk
Mon Jul 12 02:17:52 MDT 2004

9th July 2004

Australian oil production declining fast



Latest US EIA data confirms Australian oil production dropping through
the floor. Pity Howard is too busy shovelling subsidies out to
industry to consider responsible government.

The latest global oil production data from the Energy Information
Agency (USEIA 2004) includes a significant revision for Australian
production. The EIA now estimates that in 2003 Australian oil
production fell by 18%, and that in the first four months of this year
it is down by 15% in comparison to the same period last year.

This is bad news in anyone's book, worse than older Geoscience
Australia and Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics
estimates. Geoscience Australia estimated that, "Australian stocks of
crude oil (in the ground) will be exhausted in 8 (now 5) years if the
current rate of production is maintained and there is no discovery of
new reserves" (GA 2001a). There have been no significant discoveries
in Australia since that time.

The ABARE study, conducted by Woodside Energy p/l Managing Director
John Akehurst, said: "Projections by Australian Government forecasting
agencies indicate that Australia is facing a rapid decline in liquid
petroleum production over the next decade. Liquids self-sufficiency is
expected to decline from an average of 80-90% over the past decade to
less than 40% by 2010." (Akehurst 2002)

Before reflexive Pollyanna's leap to defend the 'limitless bounty as
our birthright' fantasy, I'll quote J.Williams, CEO of Geosciences
Australia, testifying to House of Reps commitee last year: "Turning
now to petroleum, just to add to our submission, the situation with
production to reserves ratio, which was around 11 in the submission,
has now deteriorated considerably down to five, which means that our
indigenous supplies of liquid crude oil resources are certainly
deteriorating. That raises questions of petroleum security and the
like" (HoR SCIR 2003).

John Howards 150% tax rebate/subsidy for oil exploration wont do
anything apart from boost bonus's and provide ex-ministers with board
seats. As (foreign explorer) Japan Australia LNG (MMI) stated in their
submission to the House of Reps (HoR SCIR 2003), "there are few
impediments to oil exploration in Australia that rival the generally
very low chance of success for finding crude oil."

Thanks to Little Johnnies foresight, corporations now don't even have
to find anything to make a profit! How long will taxpayers subsidise
industry to look for what isn't there, while ignoring the major
changes required to avert a forced power down?




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