[Marxism] Socialist Voice: Morales election is avictoryfor the Bolivian people

rrubinelli rrubinelli at earthlink.net
Tue Mar 7 19:58:34 MST 2006


Well, let me offer this:  the hard cold edge of economics is going to
make it hard and harder for the "pink tide" to flow in LA as a "reform"
movement, as a movement for continental integration, as a movement of
national salvation.

The proportion of intra-continental trade in relation to total trade has
declined in the last 10 years, in the last 4 years, with Brazil and
Argentina leading the way.  This is to be expected as these are/were the
two leading economies of the continent.  Net capital inflows have been
more than offset, they have been pushed into negative numbers since
peaking in 1997; at the same time, and not unexpectedly, net payments of
profits and interest have increased 25% between 2002, when Lula was
elected, and 2004 although Argentina had suspended payments on $130
billion in debts.

Total transfer of resources in Brazil has been consistently negative
since 2002 when Lula was elected .   The 2004 measure of outflow is now
triple the 2002 level and double the 2003 mark.   Venezuela shows a
similar pattern, although with negative outflows from 1996 on.  The 2004
mark, despite the increase in oil prices is a record negative $19.4
billion.

Terms of trade have been worsened for the entire continent since 2000,
turning negative in 2001, 2002, 2003.

Growth of gross fixed capital in machinery and equipment has been
stalled since 2000 as the overproduction of capital continues to
strangle production itself.  Total gross fixed capital formation
(including construction) at constant prices is still below 2000 levels.
And, no surprise, GDP per capita  in 2003 was 2% below 2000's measure.

This is not to say , by any means, that Lula, or Kirchner or any
national front is responsible for this performance.  Capital is
responsible.  But the pretense of national salvation cannot cover the
continued economic deprivation, nor can it remedy it.  The bourgeoisie
can starve the revolution before they themselves starve.  A rich man can
get through poor times, better than a poor man.  Eventually, inevitably,
the poor man, the poor women and men, have to seize the rich man's
property.  Or perish.

rr
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Louis Proyect" <lnp3 at panix.com>
To: "Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition"
<marxism at lists.econ.utah.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, March 07, 2006 3:30 PM
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Socialist Voice: Morales election is avictoryfor
the Bolivian people







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