[Marxism] Perfect storm?

Les Schaffer schaffer at optonline.net
Sun May 8 12:11:36 MDT 2005

rrubinelli wrote:

>Or like predicting, may I be so bold, the Hubbert Peak in oil
>production-- it was in 1985, I mean 95, make that 2000, sorry I meant
>2003, no 04, 05, and definitely 06.

i beg to differ, dear cumrade.

with predictions for stock markets and such, capital has labor to 
manipulate and burn for as long as there are people on the planet who 
need to work for a "living". population as you know is increasing, 
almost everywhere. if "stocks" of labor start dropping, you can be SURE 
that George W. Bush and colleagues will institute nationalized health 
care plans the likes you never imagined. and religious TV networks will 
encourage fucking. AND condoms will be outlawed.

oil on the other hand, well, ummm, you know the "drill".

>For Marx, "crisis" is exactly that, critical, vital, to the maintenance
>and reproduction of capital.

i hear ya. i believe the system depends in some way on crisis 
manufactured and not. yes, oil companies will use Hubbert for their own 
ends. but you won't admit you believe in Hubbert too: i know you know 
how oil was made, i know you know 10 minus 1 is 9. i know you know how 
models with to-be-constrained-by-observation  parameters work. so in 
effect you choose a Hubbert model with a longgggggggggggg tail, so 
remove the "crisis" from the discussion table. tsk tsk tsk.....

that doesn't mean we both don't know oil will never run out. because we 
know the model is limited by assumptions. we both believe in regime 
change, so we know social systems of today are the dust bins of morrow. 
so anything can happen out on that tail. new ballgame. some oil left in 
the ground as t --> infinity. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

>This, catastrophe theorizing, is nothing but the complementary opposite
>to that other axis of the bourgeoisie's "new" political economy-- "the
>end of the business cyle," expansion without end, amen.  Both, gloom and
>doom and rosy skies are the limit theorizing, are simply manifestation
>of those twin pillars of the free market, fear and greed.

fair enough, but don't confuse head in the sand for lack of fear. show 
us the face of courage with one eye on the oil meter.

said differently: the purpose of a model like Hubbert is for guidance. 
Bush and his clan will use that guidance for their purposes. We should 
use it for our own. You may have a point that a social revolution cannot 
be founded on future predictions of a tail in oil supply. ok. but should 
we REALLY not even discuss the possibility? i am not so sure. yes,  
people are more convinced of climate change than they used to, but we 
see no consequent clamoring on the streets as of yet. should we stop 
talking about climate and just talk about the weather?

les schaffer

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